WIKILEAKS FILES: USA AMBASSADOR MEETING WITH CDE SAVIOUR KASUKUWERE IN YEAR 2000

WIKILEAKS FILES: USA AMBASSADOR MEETING WITH CDE SAVIOUR KASUKUWERE IN YEAR 2000

ID	00HARARE6189
SUBJECT	AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY
DATE	2000-11-02 00:00:00
CLASSIFICATION	CONFIDENTIAL
ORIGIN	Embassy Harare
TEXT	C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006189 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/10 TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CONFIDENTIAL REFTEL: HARARE 5829 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 1. (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 1, AMBASSADOR AND POLOFF MET WITH NEW ZANU-PF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT SAVIOUR "TYSON" KASUKUWERE TO DISCUSS A VARIETY OF ISSUES, INCLUDING DEVELOPMENTS IN HIS PARTY. KASUKUWERE, A YOUNGISH BUSINESSMAN WITH STRONG PARTY TIES, SAID THAT THE LAND ISSUE HAD BEEN BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION AND THAT FARMLAND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AWAY FROM WHITE FARMERS BY FORCE. HE ALSO PLAINLY STATED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES MUST BE PHASED OUT OF THEIR LEADERSHIP ROLE AND PROPOSED THAT THE TWO VICE-PRESIDENTS SHOULD STEP DOWN AS A FIRST STEP. THE MP STRUCK A MORE MODERATE TONE THAN HIS "OLD GUARD" COUNTERPARTS IN PARLIAMENT, BUT HE IS STILL VERY MUCH A ZANU-PF LOYALIST WITH A SHADY BACKGROUND. END SUMMARY. --------------- MP DEBATES LAND --------------- 2. (C) ON NOVEMBER 1, AMBASSADOR AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) MET WITH THE NEW ZANU-PF MP FOR MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH SAVIOUR "TYSON" KASUKUWERE, TO DISCUSS A VARIETY OF ISSUES, INCLUDING LAND AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN HIS PARTY. ON LAND, HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE ISSUE HAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06189 01 OF 02 021438Z BECOME POLITICIZED AND HAD BEEN ALLOWED TO BECOME "EVERYTHING" IN POLITICAL DEBATE. COMMERCIAL FARMLAND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN FORCEFULLY FROM THEIR OWNERS, BUT THERE IS A NEED FOR LAND REDISTRIBUTION, KASUKUWERE OFFERED. WHEN ASKED BY THE AMBASSADOR ON THE WAY FORWARD ON LAND REFORM, THE MP SAID THAT ZIMBABWE WILL AT SOME POINT HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE DONORS TO FINANCE FARM PURCHASES. THE AMBASSADOR STRESSED THAT DONORS WERE VERY UNLIKELY TO RESUME FUNDING UNTIL LAW AND ORDER HAD BEEN RESTORED ON THE FARMS. KASUKUWERE STATED THAT SQUATTERS MUST BE REMOVED FROM FARMS NOT DESIGNATED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION, IMPLYING THAT SQUATTERS ON DESIGNATED PROPERTIES SHOULD REMAIN. ------------------------------ NEW DEAL ON MUGABE SUCCESSION? ------------------------------ 3. THE CONVERSATION TURNED TO ZANU-PF INTERNAL POLITICS AND THE SUCCESSION ISSUE. KASUKUWERE OPENLY STATED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES MUST BE PHASED OUT IN ORDER FOR ZANU-PF TO SURVIVE. THE MP SUGGESTED THAT SOME IN THE PARTY ARE TRYING TO GET THE TWO AGED VICE- PRESIDENTS, SIMON MUZENDA AND JOSEPH MSIKA, TO STEP DOWN AS A FIRST STEP. THAT WOULD THEN PROVIDE A STEPPING STONE FOR YOUNGER MEN SUCH AS SIMBA MAKONI OR SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI TO MOVE UP INTO A POSITION TO BECOME THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT. WHEN ASKED ABOUT MAKONI'S POWER BASE, KASUKUWERE SAID THAT MAKONI HAS ENOUGH CONNECTIONS WITH BUSINESS AND AN UNDERSTANDING OF POLITICS TO MAKE HIM THE NEXT PRESIDENT. HE IS NOT A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06189 01 OF 02 021438Z TECHNOCRAT, AS MANY HAVE SAID, BUT HAS HIS OWN BASE OF SUPPORT. KASUKUWERE SUGGESTED THAT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND FORMER HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA ARE ALSO CONTENDERS FOR VICE- PRESIDENT, AND EVENTUALLY, PRESIDENT. MNANGAGWA HAS EARNED A GREAT DEAL OF RESPECT ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM FOR HIS EVENHANDEDNESS IN OVERSEEING PARLIAMENT, THE MP OPINED. (COMMENT: MNANGAGWA'S EVENHANDEDNESS HAS BEEN SELECTIVE. HE STILL QUELLS DEBATE AND MANIPULATES PARLIAMENTARY PROCEDURE IN ZANU- PF'S FAVOR WHEN CRITICAL VOTES ARE ON THE LINE. THE SPEAKER IS ALSO REPUTED TO BE FEARED AND DISLIKED BY SENIOR MEMBERS OF HIS OWN PARTY. KASUKUWERE'S REMARKS SUGGEST THAT HE MUST BE ONE OF MNANGAGWA'S FEW VOCAL SUPPORTERS. END COMMENT.) EVERYONE IN ZANU-PF CAN "READ THE SIGNS" THAT CHANGE IS COMING, EVEN THE OLD GUARD, KASUKUWERE SAID. THE PARTY CANNOT AFFORD TO POSTPONE REFORM ANY LONGER, BUT, NONETHELESS, IT MUST BE CARRIED OUT IN A MANAGED WAY, THE MP REMARKED. --------------------------- LOCAL ELECTIONS AND THE DRC --------------------------- 4. (C) KASUKUWERE WRAPPED UP BY SAYING THAT THE GOZ IS DELAYING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN HARARE AND OTHER CITIES UNTIL ZANU-PF CAN WORK OUT A PLAN TO WIN THEM. IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TOMORROW, THE MDC WOULD CLEARLY SWEEP EVERY CITY COUNCIL AND MAYORSHIP, THE MP ADMITTED. HE ALSO AFFIRMED THAT HE IS CHAIRMAN OF THE DEFENSE AND HOME AFFAIRS COMMITTEE IN PARLIAMENT, AND THAT HE HAS SPOKEN WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ABOUT WITHDRAWING ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS FROM THE DRC. HE SAID, WITHOUT ELABORATING, THAT SOME TROOPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROUGHT BACK HOME. 5. (C) COMMENT: KASUKUWERE STRUCK A MORE MODERATE TONE IN HIS REMARKS THAN HIS "OLD GUARD" COUNTERPARTS, AND CLEARLY INDICATED BY WHAT HE TOLD US THAT HE COULD BE CONSIDERED A "YOUNG TURK" IN THE PARTY (REFTEL). HOWEVER, THAT DOES NOT MEAN HIS LOYALTY TO ZANU-PF IS WAVERING, OR THAT HE IS CONSIDERING CLOSE COOPERATION WITH THE MDC. OTHER SOURCES HAVE TOLD US THAT THE BRAWNY KASUKUWERE DIRECTED THE CAMPAIGN OF PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION IN HIS MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH DISTRICT, ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY AFFECTED AREAS. IT UNDOUBTEDLY CONTRIBUTED TO HIS SWEEPING VICTORY OVER HIS MDC RIVAL. HIS COMMENTS ABOUT GETTING THE VICE- PRESIDENTS TO RESIGN ARE INTERESTING AND IT IS NOT UNTHINKABLE THAT SUCH A PLAN MAY BE UNDER CONSIDERATION WITHIN THE PARTY. HOWEVER, IF THE OLD GUARD IS SOON REPLACED BY THE YOUNGER GENERATION, IT MAY NOT NECESSARILY HARBINGER A WHOLESALE CHANGE IN HOW ZANU-PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06189 02 OF 02 021438Z RUNS THE COUNTRY. END COMMENT. 6. (C) BIO NOTE: SAVIOUR KASUKUWERE IS APPROXIMATELY 35-40 YEARS OLD. HE ORIGINALLY HAILS FROM MARONDERA DISTRICT, WHERE HIS FAMILY WAS INVOLVED IN THE 1970S LIBERATION WAR. HE ATTENDED UNIVERSITY IN BERLIN BEFORE JOINING THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO), WHERE HE SERVED FOR 8-9 YEARS. KASUKUWERE JOINED THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE IN 1995 BEFORE BEING ELECTED TO PARLIAMENT IN 2000. HE OWNS A TRUCKING BUSINESS IN MUTARE (FAR FROM HIS PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY OF MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH--HE LIKES TO KEEP BUSINESS AND POLITICS "SEPARATE," HE TOLD US.) HE HAS GOOD ACCESS TO FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, WHOM HE AND BUSINESS PARTNERS APPROACHED RECENTLY FOR HELP IN OBTAINING FINANCING FOR HIS BUSINESS OPERATIONS. HE IS MARRIED WITH THREE YOUNG CHILDREN. END BIO NOTE. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL